NAVIGATING THE AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPE: THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE ON BANGLADESH'S FARMING PRACTICES

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Published: 2025-08-25
DOI: https://doi.org/10.46281/c27b3q22
Keywords:
ARDL, Bangladesh, Climate Change, Agriculture, Carbon Emission, Macroeconomic Impacts

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Mohamamad Asrarul Hasanat
Lecturer, Department of Economics, Southeast University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
https://orcid.org/0009-0003-3604-7273
Sojib Bhawmick
Lecturer, Department of Economics, Dhaka International University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
https://orcid.org/0009-0000-2711-2860
Md. Parvez Hasan
MSS student, Department of Economics, University of Chittagong, Chattogram, Bangladesh
https://orcid.org/0009-0005-2507-0528
Radiant Roy
MSS student, Department of Economics, University of Chittagong, Chattogram, Bangladesh
https://orcid.org/0009-0009-8343-3605
Didarul Islam
MSS student, Department of Economics, Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Tangail, Dhaka, Bangladesh
https://orcid.org/0009-0004-5594-0582

Abstract

Agriculture in Bangladesh has a significant impact on the economy, contributing 11.37 percent to the national GDP and employing almost 45 percent of the total labor force. Both climatic and non-climatic factors significantly influence the Agricultural productivity in Bangladesh, as the country is highly climate sensitive due to its geographical location. Climate factors (rainfall, Temperature, CO₂ emissions) and non-climate inputs (fertilizer) critically influence agricultural productivity, yet their combined short- and long-term macroeconomic impacts remain underexplored. This study examines the effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on agricultural productivity and their subsequent macroeconomic implications in Bangladesh. Using time series data (1990–2021), we employ the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to assess long-term elasticities and the Granger causality test to determine directional relationships between variables The ARDL results reveal significant long-term elasticities: a 1% increase in fertilizer use raises agricultural output by 0.49%, while a 1% rise in Temperature reduces output by 0.04%. CO₂ emissions and rainfall show positive impacts (0.71% and 0.96%, respectively). The error correction term (-0.49) indicates the system corrects 49% of short-run disequilibrium annually. Granger causality confirms bidirectional relationships between fertilizer use and agricultural productivity (F-stat = 3.72), while Temperature unidirectionally affects output (F-stat = 4.22). The findings validate that non-climate factors (fertilizer) and climate variables (CO₂, rainfall) positively influence agricultural output, whereas Temperature exerts adverse effects. These results align with prior regional studies but highlight Bangladesh's unique susceptibility to temperature fluctuations.


JEL Classification Codes: C22, O53, Q54, Q10, Q53, F62.

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Issue

Vol. 10 No. 5 (2025): Continuous Publication

Section

Research Paper/Theoretical Paper/Review Paper/Short Communication Paper
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Author Biographies

Mohamamad Asrarul Hasanat, Lecturer, Department of Economics, Southeast University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Mohammad Asrarul Hasanat is currently serving as a Lecturer in the Department of Economics at Southeast University, Bangladesh. He began his teaching career in 2023 at Dhaka International University before joining Southeast University in 2024. He holds both Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees in Economics from the University of Chittagong. His research interests include exchange rate dynamics, climate change and agriculture, Islamic social and commercial finance, and socioeconomic development. He has presented research at national and international conferences. His work reflects a commitment to exploring socioeconomic issues pertinent to Bangladesh's development.

Sojib Bhawmick, Lecturer, Department of Economics, Dhaka International University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Sojib Bhawmick is currently serving as a Lecturer in the Department of Economics at Dhaka International University, Bangladesh. He began his teaching career in January 2023. He holds both Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees in Economics from Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University. His research interests span macroeconomics, applied economics, environmental economics, and informal economics. He is passionate about analyzing economic issues and their impact on both the local and global economies, with a focus on practical solutions for sustainable development.

Md. Parvez Hasan, MSS student, Department of Economics, University of Chittagong, Chattogram, Bangladesh

Md. Parvez Hasan is currently serving as a Research Assistant at Research and Integrated Thought (RIT), Dhaka, Bangladesh. He completed both his bachelor’s and master’s degrees in Economics from the University of Chittagong. Following his graduation, he joined the Youth Society for Research and Action (YSRA) as a Teaching Assistant. He has also contributed to several research projects in the capacity of Research Assistant and Data Analyst. His primary research interests include ruralization and agriculture, Islamic banking and finance, and welfare economics. His work reflects a strong commitment to addressing socioeconomic challenges in Bangladesh and utilizing welfare economic tools to mitigate inequality in wealth distribution. 

Radiant Roy, MSS student, Department of Economics, University of Chittagong, Chattogram, Bangladesh

Radiant Roy is currently pursuing a Master’s degree in Economics with a specialization in Environmental Economics at the Dhaka School of Economics, Bangladesh. He earned his graguation in Economics from the University of Chittagong and worked at a private commercial bank from 2022 to 2025. His research interests include energy economics, agricultural economics, and sustainable development.

Didarul Islam, MSS student, Department of Economics, Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Tangail, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Didarul Islam completed his graduation and post-graduation in Economics from the Department of Economics, Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University. He served as a Research Assistant on a private project for more than one year. His current focus is on time series analysis, with research interests particularly in the application of time series methods in agricultural economics.

How to Cite

Hasanat, M. A. ., Bhawmick, S. ., Hasan, M. P. ., Roy, R. ., & Islam, D. . (2025). NAVIGATING THE AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPE: THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE ON BANGLADESH’S FARMING PRACTICES. Bangladesh Journal of Multidisciplinary Scientific Research, 10(5), 34-45. https://doi.org/10.46281/c27b3q22
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