INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON EXCHANGE RATE: A STUDY ON BANGLADESH
Keywords:
Exchange Rate, Bangladesh, GDP, FDI, Remittance, Foreign Exchange Reserve, Macroeconomic Factors.
Abstract
Exchange rate plays an imperative role in international trade of the country. The exchange rate is an important macroeconomic variable used as parameter for determining international competitiveness and indicates the global position of economy of the country. The development of the country is closely related with its foreign exchange system. The construction of this study is to determine the influential macroeconomic variables of the exchange rate by considering 20 years, from 2002 to 2021, data of Bangladesh. Pearson’s correlation and multiple linear regression are used to analyse the data. The results indicate that current account balance, foreign exchange reserve, remittances, and GDP growth rate has a significant positive correlation with the exchange rate. However, interest rate and current account balance have no statistically significant relationship with the exchange rate. Therefore, current account balance, foreign exchange reserve, remittances, and GDP growth rate are the most influential factors in determining the exchange rate. Therefore, this research concludes that policymakers can change these influential factors to get the best exchange rate for the benefit of the growing economy of Bangladesh.
JEL Classification Codes: B22, O24.
References
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Chowdhury, M., & Hossain, M. (2014). Determinants of exchange rate in Bangladesh: A case study. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(1), 78-81. Retrieved from https://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JEDS/article/view/10280/10483
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Froot, K. A., & Stein, J. C. (1991). Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: an imperfect capital markets approach. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(4), 1191-1217. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937961
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Gottschalk, S., & Hall, S. (2008). Foreign direct investment and exchange rate uncertainty in South‐East Asia. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 13(4), 349-359. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.355
Gupta, S., Pattillo, C. A., & Wagh, S. (2009). Effect of remittances on poverty and financial development in Sub-Saharan Africa. World development, 37(1), 104-115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.05.007
Hacker, R. S., Karlsson, H. K., & Månsson, K. (2014). An investigation of the causal relations between exchange rates and interest rate differentials using wavelets. International Review of Economics & Finance, 29, 321-329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2013.06.004
Haque, M. A., & Brumm, J. (2008). Macrovariables in determining the exchange of the US Dollar and major currencies. Journal of Economics & Economic Education Research, 9(1), 79-92. Retrieved from https://www.abacademies.org/journals/month-april-year-2008-vol-9-issue-1-journal-jeeer-past-issue.html
Heller, H. R. (1978, August). Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 10, 03rd ser., 308-321. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/1991510
Hnatkovska, V., Lahiri, A., & Vegh, C. A. (2013). Interest rate and the exchange rate: A non-monotonic tale. European Economic Review, 63, 68-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.06.001
Hughes Hallett, A. J., & Wren‐Lewis, S. (1997). Is there life outside the ERM? An evaluation of the effects of sterling's devaluation on the UK economy. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2(3), 199-216. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1158(199707)2:3%3C199::AID-IJFE45%3E3.0.CO;2-8
Insah, B., & Chiaraah, A. (2013). Sources of real exchange rate volatility in the Ghanaian economy. Journal of Economics and international Finance, 5(6), 232-238. https://doi.org/10.5897/JEIF2013.0517
Islam, S. M. M., & Biswas, S. (2009). Exchange Rate and its impacts on GDP and Inflation in bangladesh. ASA University Review, 3(2), 65-82. Retrieved from http://www.asaub.edu.bd/data/asaubreview/v3n2sl6.pdf
Ito, T., Isard, P., & Symansky, S. (2007). Exchange rates volatility. In Ito, T., & Krueger, A. O. (Eds.). (2007). Changes in exchange rates in rapidly developing countries: theory, practice, and policy issues, (Vol. 6). University of Chicago Press.
Joseph, A. I. (2011). An empirical investigation of the link between exchange rate volatility and trade in Nigeria. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 2(3), 175-183. Retrieved from https://journals.co.za/doi/10.10520/EJC134175
Kasman, A., & Ayhan, D. (2008). Foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates in Turkey: Structural breaks, unit roots and cointegration. Economic Modelling, 25(1), 83-92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2007.04.010
Khan, M. T. (2013). Exchange rate as a determinant of fluctuation in foreign exchange reserves: Evidence from economy of Pakistan. Academic Research International, 4(2), 459. Retrieved from http://www.savap.org.pk/journals/ARInt./Vol.4(2)/2013(4.2-48).pdf
Khan, R. E. A., Sattar, R., & Rehman, H. (2012). Effectiveness of exchange rate in Pakistan: Causality analysis. Pak. J. Commer. Soc. Sci, 6(1), 83-96. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267861173_Effectiveness_of_Exchange_Rate_in_Pakistan_Causality_Analysis
Khera, K., & Singh, I. (2015). Effect of macroeconomic factors on rupee value. Delhi Business Review, 16(1), 87-96. Retrieved from https://www.delhibusinessreview.org/v16n1.htm
Kogut, B., & Chang, S. J. (1996). Platform Investments and Volatility Exchange Rates: Direct Investment in the US by Japanese Electronic Companies. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(2), 221-31. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109924
Lartey, E. K., Mandelman, F. S., & Acosta, P. A. (2012). Remittances, exchange rate regimes and the Dutch disease: A panel data analysis. Review of international Economics, 20(2), 377-395. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2012.01028.x
Maurya, S. (2017). Factors affecting exchange rate and its impact on economy of India. Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management, 7(8), 324-347. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319216390_Factors_affecting_Exchange_Rate_and_its_Impact_on_Economy_of_India
Mayowa, A., & Olushola, I. (2013, March). The Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 2(1), 456-468. Retrieved from https://www.richtmann.org/journal/index.php/ajis/article/view/99/96
Mehrotra, A. N. (2007). Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era—Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 35(1), 188-210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2006.10.004
Mirchandani, A. (2013). Analysis of macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate volatility in India. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(1), 172-179. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijefi/issue/31956/351891?publisher=http-www-cag-edu-tr-ilhan-ozturk
Mkenda, B. K. (2001). Long-run and short-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Zambia (Vol. 40). Department of Economics, Göteborg Univ. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11810/2879
Mostafa, M. (2020). Impacts of inflation and exchange rate on foreign direct investment in Bangladesh. International Journal of Science and Business, 4(11), 53-69. Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aif/journl/v4y2020i11p53-69.html
Musa, N. (2021). Impact of exchange rate volatility on inflation in Nigeria. Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, Economics and Finance, 3(1), 26-38. https://doi.org/10.33094/26410265.2021.31.26.38
Nuhu, M. (2020). Impact of trade openness and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigera. Interdisciplinary Journal of African and Asian Studies (IJAAS), 6(2), 185-198. Retrieved from https://www.nigerianjournalsonline.com/index.php/ijaas/article/download/1310/1292
Nwude, E. C. (2012). A survey of foreign exchange rate determinants in Nigeria. European Journal of Business and Management, 4(13), 168-175. Retrieved from https://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/EJBM/article/view/2716/2740
Ogun, O. D. (2012). Exchange rate determination in developing economies. Modern Economy, 3(5), 518-521. Retrieved from https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=23318
Oriavwote, V. E., & Oyovwi, D. O. (2012). The determinants of real exchange rate in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(8), 150-160. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v4n8p150
Osinubi, T. S., & Amaghionyeodiwe, L. A. (2009). Foreign direct investment and exchange rate volatility in Nigeria. International journal of applied econometrics and quantitative studies, 6(2), 83-116. Retrieved from https://www.scirp.org/%28S%28lz5mqp453edsnp55rrgjct55%29%29/reference/referencespapers.aspx?referenceid=3128180
Parveen, S., Khan, A. Q., & Ismail, M. (2012). Analysis of the factors affecting exchange rate variability in Pakistan. Academic Research International, 2(3), 670-674. Retrieved from http://www.savap.org.pk/journals/ARInt./Vol.2(3)/2012(2.81).pdf
Patel, P. J., Patel, N. J., & Patel, A. R. (2014). Factors affecting currency exchange rate, economical formulas and prediction models. International Journal of Application or Innovation in Engineering & Management, 3(3), 53-56. Retrieved from https://www.ijaiem.org/volume3issue3/IJAIEM-2014-03-05-013.pdf
Prasad, M. R. K., & Raju, G. R. (2010). Foreign Exchange Reserves Management in India: Accumulation and Utilisation. Global Journal of Finance and Management, 2, 295-306. Retrieved from https://www.scirp.org/(S(351jmbntvnsjt1aadkozje))/reference/referencespapers.aspx?referenceid=2179245
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Published
2023-02-01
How to Cite
Hasan, S. M., & Islam, R. (2023). INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON EXCHANGE RATE: A STUDY ON BANGLADESH. International Journal of Accounting & Finance Review, 14(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.46281/ijafr.v14i1.1923
Section
Research Paper/Theoretical Paper/Review Paper/Short Communication Paper
Copyright (c) 2023 Shaikh Masrick Hasan, Roushanara Islam
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
