The Dynamics of Exports and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence from Nigeria

Clement A.U. Ighodaro; Ovenseri-Ogbomo F. O.

doi:10.46281/aesr.v4i1.212

Clement A.U. Ighodaro Associate Professor and Head, Department of Economics & Statistics,University of Benin (UNIBEN),Benin City, Nigeria
Ovenseri-Ogbomo F. O. Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, Banking and Finance, Benson Idahosa University, Benin City, Nigeria

DOI: https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v4i1.212

Keywords: Economic Growth, Endogeneity, Multivariate and Granger Causality.

Abstract

The paper empirically examines the dynamics of exports and economic growth in Nigeria using time series data for 1970 to 2017. The Vector autoregressive model (VAR) was used to investigate the long run and short run relationship between exports and economic growth as well as some selected variables. The result shows that there exists a stable long run relationship among economic growth, exports, capital expenditure on education and social services. Also, the Granger causality results reveal that export Granger causes economic growth and not the other way round. This means that an increase in economic growth may result from increase in export, but increase in economic growth does not necessarily lead to increase in exports. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that a one standard innovation in exports will lead to permanent positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This therefore supports the exports led growth hypothesis for Nigeria.

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